About Us
WHO WE ARE
Wave Global Macro
As someone who benefitted from the TSP during my federal service, I've always been fascinated by the global financial markets: the ultimate puzzle. Is it possible to identify the best trending assets and protect against downside risk? The answer is, statistically speaking, yes.
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I majored in mathematics, earned an MBA in international finance, and completed certifications for Series 65 (Investment Advisor) and Chartered Market Technician (CMT), the premier certification for technical analysis. I also devour public and subscription reports from the big players. Success includes following the big brains and the big money.
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I'm a former CIA officer with 30+ years of service with various elements of the U.S. Intelligence Community. I served in senior leadership positions around the world, which provided me unique insights about the global economy.
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Happy hunting,
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Anthony Patton
How do the economy and financial markets work?
How do we identify market waves?
1. Trend. The trend is your friend. For a variety of reasons, to include GDP growth, population growth, inflation, and so on, markets tends persist over time (momentum), mostly to the upside. The 100-year chart for the S&P 500 is impressive and hard to beat. However, markets also trend to the downside during recessions, such as the dot.com bubble of 2000 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Our goal is to identify the major trends and align our positions.
2. Market Regimes. The global economy moves through four predictable regimes: 1. Disinflation/Recovery, 2. Growth/Reflation, 3. Inflation/Stagflation, and 4. Risk-off/Deflation, with Dollar Dominance/Tightening interrupting these regimes during market deleveraging or before interest rate hikes. We use time-tested market ratios (stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and U.S. dollar) that anticipate and confirm regime changes, then align our positions to ride the structural waves.
3. Relative Strength. The trend is your friend but some trends are better than others, meaning that some trends offer better percentage returns over time. We use quantitative tools to measure this. If your goal is to enhance returns, you have to identify assets classes that are outperforming your core positions on a relative basis. Our research uses C Fund as a baseline, with green funds outperforming C Fund on a relative basis and yellow fund underperforming C Fund on a relative basis.
4. Mutual Funds. To enhance portfolio diversification, which allows for both enhanced returns and or lower risk, we curated a list of Vanguard mutual funds that are force multipliers to the existing TSP funds. For example, we rotate the 11 sectors of the C Fund that outperform and geographic regions of the I Fund that outperform. We also rotate other bonds and commodities. A diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and commodities, will include funds with trend, momentum, and relative strength.
Why Wave Global Macro?
We encourage you to read our newsletter to better understand our methodology. When you're ready, you can paper trade or dip your toes in to start achieving your investment objectives.
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What's the TSP secret sauce?
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Numbers
Discipline
Patience
